Tennis Value Bets


Jr. Member
Wagering on tennis is one of the more profitable ways to stake money on sports. After all, in any conventional tennis match, a result can only go one of two ways - either Player/Team A wins, or Player/Team B does. True, there are also options such as tournament winners, fastest serve and so on, but most tennis bettors opt for match winner bets. Even with just two sport options on the table, you should still try and find value in your bets. What does this mean, though? To help you understand, we have put together this guide to tennis value bets online.

What Is a Value Bet?
Value is essential when placing any type of bet, not specifically tennis. However, this is a tennis betting guide, so we are more concerned with where the value lies in tennis bets. In most cases, there is value in a bet if your competitor has a reasonable to good shot of winning and has favourable odds to boot. Of course, for most tennis players in a tournament, this is not going to be the case. So, what do value bets in tennis look like, and how do you find them? Let us explore...

Give Me an Example...
One of the first things you should do when looking for value in tennis bets is to look for the winners. Of course, if your chosen player is more likely to beat his opponent, you are more likely to get a return. However, it is not just about picking a winner. You also need to pick a bet that is likely to see you pocket a good return. After all, betting on Roger Federer or Novak Djokovic will likely see you make a small profit but wagering on a top-five seed who is on form could be only slightly less likely but yield a far bigger profit.

Qualitative or Quantitative?
There are typically two ways to find value in tennis bets. These are known qualitative and quantitative options. The qualitative approach involves looking at all the information you have in front of you concerning an event or match and working out the percentage of success based on those figures. For instance, you believe that Rafael Nadal has a 60% chance of success based on your stats, then use this formula:
- 1 / 60 x 100 = 1.66
As you can see from the sports calculation above. If you really believe that Nadal has a 60% chance of success, you should be looking for odds of 1.66 or greater but no less.
Alternatively, you can opt for the quantitative approach. This involves assigning numbers to various statistics, such as past performances and so on, to establish a rating system. This will be their “rating”, and much like the ELO Ranking System, you can use this to gauge how likely a player is to win. For instance, if Player A has a rating of 1777, and Player B has a rating of 1590, you can divide each player's rating by the total ratings and multiply that by 100 to get their chance of success.
For instance, Player A has a 52.7% chance of success according to this formula:
- 1777 / (1777 + 1590) x 100 = 52.7
Some players like to use a mixed approach to find value in tennis bets. They might start with quantitative then switch to qualitative. For instance, if you were to take that percentage rating and use the qualitative formula listed above, you could see that the ideal odds to look for with bets on Player A would be 1.90, like so:
- 1 / 52.7 x 100 = 1.90
Where Can I Find the Info Need to Locate Value Bets
There are many resources online where you can find all the stats you need to form your own rating system to help you find value in bets. Form assessment and past performance guides can o8en be found at WTA websites and other tennis statistics sites. Even bookmakers sometimes offer stats centres, although these tend to be limited to the most recent events. Tennis stats software is available to download for free (the better ones will cost), and this is also something worth considering.

Do All Bookmakers Offer Value Bets in Tennis?
A bookmaker’s sole purpose is to make money on your losing bets. They will naturally try to offer odds that appear enticing to you but that somehow favour them. For this reason, it is important that you do your homework before you decide to bet. We are not saying that bookies are out to cheat you, but some offer odds that are far less competitive than their counterparts, so always shop around for the best odds.

Tipsters May Be Worth a Shout
It may be worth visiting a tipster. Some tipsters have insider knowledge of statistics and probability that will take you years to learn. Many require a fee for their services, but some dole out their advice for free. If you are struggling to find value in tennis bets, then spending a little cash to seek out the advice of a tennis beJng pro may be worth your while.

That Is Great - What’s Next?
Now that you know a little bit about the value in tennis bets, you might feel as though you are ready to start wagering on tennis online. Be warned that not all bookmakers offer tennis value bets, so be prepared to look around to find the best deals.
If you fancy matched beJng with tennis, then be sure to sign up to multiple bookmakers and an exchange to claim the best free sign-up bets, deposit deals and more. If arbitrage tennis beJng is your forte, then sign up to at least two bookmakers to ensure that you have a good selection of odds at your disposal. Of course, you may just fancy placing straight-up match winner bets at bookies, and that is okay, too. However, you wish to bet, be sure you look for value in tennis bets first before wagering, though.