Hello mates,
Sometimes it seems there are published non relevant odds. From time to time there are some odds, not correspond to real probabilities. Bookmakers firms are well informed ones and for sure put their probabilities converted to odds (minus their margin). We've all withessed starting odds, changed due to team news, last resent team form, injuries, changed starting lists, the match value (first or second leg, dead rubber or viable one), city or national derby or not, weather conditions etc. Of course, the bookies tend to balance their wagers well. Some of these starting non relevant odds are so strange, because there are not visible reasons behind these ones. There are several ones every month. Maybe large strange bets prematch? For instance, today in Sweden held the soccer match between the bottom fish Akropolis vs top team Norrby - Superettan soccer division. Starting odds in 1x2 market were in range 2.7-3.2-2.7 several days ago and closing odds were in range 3-3.2-2.5 today. The final result is 0:3. The analysis shows us big top team supremacy in all the indicators. Me personally was astonished by closing odds there. I've not found logic behind these odds. Maybe in these matches there are some big value, but again there are not logical reasons for these closing odds. I've opened a small position there and I've caught a big value. When starting non relevant odds and closing odds have small difference in time with non visible logic behind that, there are some value opportunities. But we can't view bookies point of view - are there some prematch bets in Asia, or possibility fixed match, or something else. Value trap maybe? When it comes to famous top leagues, I've spotted no so big value in similar opportunities.What are your observations in similar cases, and your approach? Mine is cautious wager if there is a real value, determined by me, but bookies are well informed ones and I am curious when the final result is non related to the prematch odds, how is that possible?
Sometimes it seems there are published non relevant odds. From time to time there are some odds, not correspond to real probabilities. Bookmakers firms are well informed ones and for sure put their probabilities converted to odds (minus their margin). We've all withessed starting odds, changed due to team news, last resent team form, injuries, changed starting lists, the match value (first or second leg, dead rubber or viable one), city or national derby or not, weather conditions etc. Of course, the bookies tend to balance their wagers well. Some of these starting non relevant odds are so strange, because there are not visible reasons behind these ones. There are several ones every month. Maybe large strange bets prematch? For instance, today in Sweden held the soccer match between the bottom fish Akropolis vs top team Norrby - Superettan soccer division. Starting odds in 1x2 market were in range 2.7-3.2-2.7 several days ago and closing odds were in range 3-3.2-2.5 today. The final result is 0:3. The analysis shows us big top team supremacy in all the indicators. Me personally was astonished by closing odds there. I've not found logic behind these odds. Maybe in these matches there are some big value, but again there are not logical reasons for these closing odds. I've opened a small position there and I've caught a big value. When starting non relevant odds and closing odds have small difference in time with non visible logic behind that, there are some value opportunities. But we can't view bookies point of view - are there some prematch bets in Asia, or possibility fixed match, or something else. Value trap maybe? When it comes to famous top leagues, I've spotted no so big value in similar opportunities.What are your observations in similar cases, and your approach? Mine is cautious wager if there is a real value, determined by me, but bookies are well informed ones and I am curious when the final result is non related to the prematch odds, how is that possible?