Bet placement strategies

[10bet]

Hi all,

This is a topic that I haven’t seen mentioned much, so I’m hoping that some of you might have some wisdom to share.

Assuming that I have a prediction for some line that I want to bet on. For example, I believe that 2.0 is a good price, and pinny is now at 2.1 (I’m only considering sharp bookies, the sorts are not relevant to me at the moment).

What’s the best way to act?
Option 1: bet now, even if the liquidity is low.
Option 2: wait for the liquidity to increase, and hope that you don’t miss the good price.
Option 3: split your order, make many small bets and hope not to move the price too much.
Option 4: other?

related questions:
- after a large trade, how long does it take the market to “forget it”, on average (in time or in messages).
- when betting through aggregators such as Molly, to what extent do they use your information to keep moving the line?

Thanks a lot guys.

 

[nbacomputerpicks]

Hello,
Sure you're familiar with Price Action and Cold trading.
Most of the techniques in finance industry work here in sports betting, taking into account their specifics .
Assuming you've find out value odds 2.1 Pinny to current market price 2.0. Do you have experience in sportal assessments? Kelly and Vince's methods are good starting points for your work here.
My thoughts about your options 1, 2 and 3 - your action is up to you only, according to your trading or action plan. When it comes to trading, that plan is predefined - entry points, exit points, take profit, stop loss etc. Or in value betting - that ratio you've mentioned 2.1 high to 2.0 median market, pregame, in-play mode, expectations, assessments and action plan regarding predefined points.

In addition to:
option 1 and 2 - Is your pattern giving you prediction about liquidity? Update your plan and act accordingly.
More the liquidity market, less the bookie and exchanges' margin. Increasing liquidity cause stable the odds and rarely seen the "spikes" in technical analysis. And vice-versa.
option 3 - maybe according to your action plan and patterns triggered to you expectations for future value? I can't understand your question here about option 3.
Option 4 - see above. Recommendations: make more observations, use statistics, backtesting all the data, value assessments, update data patterns, using time series etc.
In general, make constant improvements in your work.
And introduce quality analysis (fundamental analysis). More years are required for that. Hot trading have some noise, therefore your task is more complex.
All that work mentioned above give to you action plan or trading plan, staking plan included.

Regarding your additional question, do you mean stable market odds after big actions? If you may observe bid/ask dynamics and money flow (exchange for instance), you may import these observations in your patterns. See UK horse markets vs US horse markets, volleyball or soccer premier vs low leagues markets and compare.