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Newbie
As there is a more significant element of risk involved if you do not know what you are doing, understanding the maths behind lay betting is essential. While most exchanges will not let you risk more than you have in your account, you do stand to be liable for losses if you are not careful. For this reason, calculating any potential lay bet winnings ahead of placing bets is crucial.
In this guide, we will look at three things you need to calculate to lock in a profit, irrespective of the result of a bet. If you have followed our lay bet guides thus far, you will already have an idea of what lay betting involves. With that fresh in your memory, let us explain how to manually calculate lay bet winnings, starting with the most important aspect - your potential liability.
Calculate Your Liability
Liability is arguably the most critical concept of lay betting, so you will need to get this right before moving on to other calculations. At a typical bookmaker, if you back a bet and lose, you have lost your stake. Things are a little different with lay bets.
As you are effectively the bookmaker, if you lose your bet, you can end up having to pay out far more than your original stake. The total payout is known as your liability. Here is how you calculate your liability, with an example:
- You choose to lay a horse at £5
- Somebody else backs your bet at £20
- If any other horse wins, you will win the other punter’s stake of £20
- If your laid horse goes on to win, you will have to pay out £80
You do not pay out the original stake to whoever backed your bet. Therefore, the equation for calculating liability is as follows:
- Backer’s Odds x Backer’s Stake - Backer’s Original Stake = Liability
Calculating Your Lay Bet Winnings
Now that you know how much you are liable for, you can start to look at what you could win with a lay bet. There is a straightforward formula that you can use to do this. The general rule is as follows:
- Lay Stake x (1 - commission) - Back Stake = Profit
For instance, if you wanted to lay a £5 stake on odds of 2.00 and with a 2% commission (10p), you would be looking at a total profit of £4.90.
Calculating Your Matched Bet
Many punters who want to place lay bets at an exchange will also back a bet at a sportsbook. This is known as matched betting. Ignoring free stake (both returned and not returned formulas) and solely dealing with qualifying bets let us see how this works.
There are four formulas that you need to know for qualifying matched bets. They include:
- Calculating the Ideal Stake for Even Profit, Irrespective of the Result
Back Odds x Back State / Lay Odds - commission = Lay Stake
- Profit (if Back Bet wins)
Back Stake x (Back Bet Odds - 1) - Lay Stake x (Lay Bet odds - 1) = Profit
- Profit (if Lay Bet wins)
Lay Stake x (1 - commission) - Back Stake = Profit
- Final profit for a Qualifying Matched Bet
Lay Stake x (1 - commission) - Back Stake = Final Profit
Use Lay Bet Calculators
Even with the formulas in front of you, wagering lay bets and engaging in matched betting exchange is still fraught with difficulties if you do not do your homework. Fortunately, there are plenty of betting calculators out there, many of which appear at leading betting exchanges.
These winnings calculators may be available in advanced or simple formats; they may span basic qualifying bets or both Stake Returned and Stake Not Returned (SNR) betting options. A typical, simplistic lay bet calculator will allow you to enter your Back State, and Back Odds, Lay Odds and Lay Commission, and through this, you can find out your liability, stake, and what happens if you win your bet at the bookmaker and exchange. Each calculator may have a series of alternative options, so it is worth browsing around.
If you are new to laying bets, we would strongly suggest using a lay bet winnings calculator and a liability calculator to understand the situation better. Moreover, you can find calculators that are also ideal for identifying the best odds to back and lay if you want to make a tidy profit.
Top Tips for Maximising Lay Bet Winnings
If you simply do not have the time for calculating winnings or find that this step is just a touch more complicated than you might like, there are cheats sheets offering shortcuts to finding the ideal lay bets and maximising your profits. We have decided to include a few of these below.
- There are many websites out there offering so-called Lay of the Day tips. These span multiple sports and can often represent a sound investment. If you do not want to waste time calculating the potential returns from lay bets, then opting to go with one of these Lay of the Day tips could be ideal. Just remember that many other players on exchanges will be thinking the same thing, so you may need to act fast if you want someone else to back your lay.
- Choose to use a trusted exchange that will only allow you to be liable for what you have in your account. This way, you do not need to focus so much on calculating your liability. The exchange will not let you go over your balance. This frees up more time to calculate your potential lay returns.
- Rather than solely placing a lay bet at an exchange, it may be worth looking into matched betting with a sportsbook on the side. This can help you to lock in profits, although this does require extra reading.
- Horse races are some of the most fancied lay bets around. As there can only be one winner (and several places), your likelihood of pulling off lay bets is decent if you find someone interested in backing your odds.
- Take the time to understand how liability, liquidity, and profit work before engaging in lay betting. The better you know these concepts, the less risk there will be for you when engaging in lay betting at exchanges.
In this guide, we will look at three things you need to calculate to lock in a profit, irrespective of the result of a bet. If you have followed our lay bet guides thus far, you will already have an idea of what lay betting involves. With that fresh in your memory, let us explain how to manually calculate lay bet winnings, starting with the most important aspect - your potential liability.
Calculate Your Liability
Liability is arguably the most critical concept of lay betting, so you will need to get this right before moving on to other calculations. At a typical bookmaker, if you back a bet and lose, you have lost your stake. Things are a little different with lay bets.
As you are effectively the bookmaker, if you lose your bet, you can end up having to pay out far more than your original stake. The total payout is known as your liability. Here is how you calculate your liability, with an example:
- You choose to lay a horse at £5
- Somebody else backs your bet at £20
- If any other horse wins, you will win the other punter’s stake of £20
- If your laid horse goes on to win, you will have to pay out £80
You do not pay out the original stake to whoever backed your bet. Therefore, the equation for calculating liability is as follows:
- Backer’s Odds x Backer’s Stake - Backer’s Original Stake = Liability
Calculating Your Lay Bet Winnings
Now that you know how much you are liable for, you can start to look at what you could win with a lay bet. There is a straightforward formula that you can use to do this. The general rule is as follows:
- Lay Stake x (1 - commission) - Back Stake = Profit
For instance, if you wanted to lay a £5 stake on odds of 2.00 and with a 2% commission (10p), you would be looking at a total profit of £4.90.
Calculating Your Matched Bet
Many punters who want to place lay bets at an exchange will also back a bet at a sportsbook. This is known as matched betting. Ignoring free stake (both returned and not returned formulas) and solely dealing with qualifying bets let us see how this works.
There are four formulas that you need to know for qualifying matched bets. They include:
- Calculating the Ideal Stake for Even Profit, Irrespective of the Result
Back Odds x Back State / Lay Odds - commission = Lay Stake
- Profit (if Back Bet wins)
Back Stake x (Back Bet Odds - 1) - Lay Stake x (Lay Bet odds - 1) = Profit
- Profit (if Lay Bet wins)
Lay Stake x (1 - commission) - Back Stake = Profit
- Final profit for a Qualifying Matched Bet
Lay Stake x (1 - commission) - Back Stake = Final Profit
Use Lay Bet Calculators
Even with the formulas in front of you, wagering lay bets and engaging in matched betting exchange is still fraught with difficulties if you do not do your homework. Fortunately, there are plenty of betting calculators out there, many of which appear at leading betting exchanges.
These winnings calculators may be available in advanced or simple formats; they may span basic qualifying bets or both Stake Returned and Stake Not Returned (SNR) betting options. A typical, simplistic lay bet calculator will allow you to enter your Back State, and Back Odds, Lay Odds and Lay Commission, and through this, you can find out your liability, stake, and what happens if you win your bet at the bookmaker and exchange. Each calculator may have a series of alternative options, so it is worth browsing around.
If you are new to laying bets, we would strongly suggest using a lay bet winnings calculator and a liability calculator to understand the situation better. Moreover, you can find calculators that are also ideal for identifying the best odds to back and lay if you want to make a tidy profit.
Top Tips for Maximising Lay Bet Winnings
If you simply do not have the time for calculating winnings or find that this step is just a touch more complicated than you might like, there are cheats sheets offering shortcuts to finding the ideal lay bets and maximising your profits. We have decided to include a few of these below.
- There are many websites out there offering so-called Lay of the Day tips. These span multiple sports and can often represent a sound investment. If you do not want to waste time calculating the potential returns from lay bets, then opting to go with one of these Lay of the Day tips could be ideal. Just remember that many other players on exchanges will be thinking the same thing, so you may need to act fast if you want someone else to back your lay.
- Choose to use a trusted exchange that will only allow you to be liable for what you have in your account. This way, you do not need to focus so much on calculating your liability. The exchange will not let you go over your balance. This frees up more time to calculate your potential lay returns.
- Rather than solely placing a lay bet at an exchange, it may be worth looking into matched betting with a sportsbook on the side. This can help you to lock in profits, although this does require extra reading.
- Horse races are some of the most fancied lay bets around. As there can only be one winner (and several places), your likelihood of pulling off lay bets is decent if you find someone interested in backing your odds.
- Take the time to understand how liability, liquidity, and profit work before engaging in lay betting. The better you know these concepts, the less risk there will be for you when engaging in lay betting at exchanges.
