Math in tennis betting

khelo24

Jr. Member
I have a question regarding tennis betting. Is it possible to predict the chance of each score happening in a tennis match/set, if you know how often the player will win points on own serve?

Lets say player A will get first serve in 65% of time. She will win it 60% of the time and 2nd serve will win 45% of the time.

Players B will get first serve in 65%, 1st serve win 70%, 2nd serve win 50%.

Is there any way through math to predict the different percentages of the possible outcomes of this set/match?
 
if you assume points throughout the match are independent, tennis match can be described with a Markov chain. so, yes there is an exact formula for the chance of player A winning a match against player B while knowing only how often each player wins a point on his serve. I'm doing some research on tennis betting and I calculated it for 3 variants: best of 3 with 3rd set only going until the tie-break, best of 5 with 5th set going until the tie-break and best of 5 with 5th set not having a tie-break (like grand slam matches).

but formulas in question are pretty damn huge and it would take you something like 10 minutes of typing to calculate the probabilities, so the only feasible way of using them is by programming it in some language.
 
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