Value Betting calculator

[betikaonline]

I read all the sources that I could find on line, and of course all articles in arbusers portal and forum, but still it is not clear to me how to calculate the true probability of an outcome. The only thing that comes to my mind, is having the odds from Betfair, provided there is enough steam in the market, and use these odds, for calculating the real probability of the outcome. Is that correct?
What happens when the steam is not enough? What if back bet is 1.68 and lay bet is 1.70? How would you calculate the true probability? Would you say 1.68, or 1.69 are the true odds?

When there is only pinnacle, how would you use it? I am thinking that if the odds are 1.981-1.981, then the real odds are 2-2. Is that correct or am I calculating something wrong?
Thank you very much for your help.

 

[betzone]

Hi, I am not an expert and some people in this forum can answer that question better than me, but here is what I think. All depends of the bookie and the sport you bet. For example Pinny and 5Dimes are very sharp in american sports, Betfair and SBO are very sharp in big socer leagues, also some soft bookies are very acurrate in the probability of the outcame in some sports (discounting the juice obviously). Like I say all depends on the sport you bet, if you have a NBA match minutes before the game start team A with 1.96 and team B with 1.96, the true probability of that game like you say is 50%-50%. So if you see in a soft bookie a odd in 2.01 you get a little value there.

Hope this help a little.

Regards.