Valuebetting - variance killing my confidence

777games

Newbie
Hello, ive read the forum for some time and its been a great help and im now looking to hopefully contribute with what i can and ask for advice.

Yes the topic is a little bit exagerrated but im wondering about your opinion.
I started go fulltime arbing 2018 in the summer, i live in a scandinavian country and made from the summer to the last of decemeber about 50k euro ONLY prematch arbing, about 6-8k a month. Yes that was when smarkets hade their zero percent offer and it was a goldmine. As a newbie (atleast first time quitting my job to live of gambling) and wanted a steady pay valuebetting wasnt anything on my mind even tho i noticed all the money ended up on the softbook as it eventually always does.

Fast forward to january 1st 2019 there is a new regulation in my country (yes you may know which one) and only betfair is now avalilable with a 6.5 commision. Hence my prematch style of arbing is pretty impossible. Read more and more about valuebetting and started to realise that was the only solution if i didnt want to end up att a wothless job again. So back when all the big leagues started in august i return with the mindset of making valuebetting my bread and butter.

Again i made about 30k euro in 5 months from august till 31st of december 2019. But here is the point, in mid november i started to watch for arb against pinnacle and didnt cover arbs at pinnacle and im in a HUGE downswing for me. 8k down now as we speak and that is since i implemented to watch for arbs against the pinnacle, before that i only had the exchange as a reference for value and that was extremly profitable.

Now for some questions after i shared my story as new to the forum, is pinnacle really that sharp anymore? And the second question, what to do when you hit a downswing, my confidence is at an all time low and im even scared to bet at all at the moment, i had a streak on the opening on australian open where i lost 24 out of 28 singles on winners. insane for me. You experinced guys in the business do you have som advice on mindset and so on, really need some tips since its really not something the average joe knows about. What do you do when you go like 2 months just down down. And is filtration a lot more important with pinnacle? With the exchange i feel confident but with pinnacle i wonder if im even betting value anymore. Share with me your downswings if you want and how you handled it, feeling lost and scared to bet at the moment.

Is there more scandinavians at the forum feel free to PM if you wanna discuss this business.
 

grandvictoria

Jr. Member
Hello,variance is part of the game,you can easily check possible downswings by using simulators/calculators.I am not experienced yet with any kind of betting but i play poker for a living last 6 years and i know very well that variance can be a beast.For betting,i think it depends on the average odds and stake system.Do you track your value bets?May we know your current sample since you started,roi average odds and stake system?About pinnacle i cant really help you,i am newbish too and i am testing now a live value bet strategy which doesnt use pinnacle odds at all.Actually i think that i beat live pinnacle odds but my sample is still small for safe conclusions(320 bets including many markets like corners etc).My average odds are 1,35 and i didnt face any serious swing so far.My advice for you is to reduce stake and check your betting history.I track everything with details,so i know f.e that i have negative roi at under/over market and i reduced my stake to 20% of normal till i have better sample.Then of course there are some general advice for everyone who gambles for a living.
 
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